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Blue Square Bet Premier – Midweek & Live Match Betting Preview

Alan Alger - 9th October 2012

Blue Square Bet Premier – Midweek & Live Match Betting Preview Tuesday’s Matches
Blue Square Bet Premier leaders Newport County are one of six odds-on home teams in a full programme of midweek fixtures from Non-League’s top-flight. Justin Edinburgh’s side welcome Ebbsfleet United to Rodney Parade and are the strong 4/9 favourites to maintain their place at the summit with a victory. Liam Daish’s visitors have a tough task in store as County have only conceded two goals at home this season, they are also undefeated there. The Fleet have not won away from home since the opening day of the season and won’t make much appeal to punters, even at an inflated price of 6/1. Forest Green Rovers remained in second place in the table despite a weekend defeat at promotion rivals Wrexham. Dave Hockaday’s side are 4/7 favourites to get back to winning ways at home to Tamworth. It’s by no means an easy game for the home side as Tamworth have done most of their winning away from home this season. Marcus Law’s team are not without a chance of a shock at The New Lawn at a price of 9/2. Luton Town sit just three points off top spot in fourth place. They are the shortest priced team in the midweek fixtures at an incredibly skinny 1/3 to beat Braintree Town at Kenilworth Road. Telford are the only team to beat Luton on their own patch this season, but both Wrexham and Gateshead have held them to draws. The Hatters can make it four league wins on the bounce tonight, something they haven’t achieved since the turn of the year. Braintree have gone seven games without a win and that’s why they’re as big as 15/2 to get three points from this game.

Dartford were on an incredible run of form before their weekend visit to Grimsby Town, but their 2-0 win at Blundell Park surely ranks as their best result of the season so far. I expected them to falter against the in-form Mariners away from home but once again they produced the goods. The market has slowly turned to one of respect for Tony Burman’s team and sometimes becoming such strong favourites is exactly the kind of thing to throw a good run off track. They are 8/11 to win at home to AFC Telford United on Tuesday night. Andy Sinton’s side have won at Luton already this season and have only been defeated once on the road, this will be a big test of the in-form Darts. Grimsby Town will look to bounce back from that weekend defeat with a win at Alfreton Town, but that’s by no means an easy game. Nicky Law’s team have gone on a six match unbeaten run – including some tough opponents – and are priced at 17/10 to extend that with a win. Grimsby are the narrow 11/8 favourites even though they are the away team. One concern is that they’ve failed to score in their last two matches, but they will be desperate to keep in touch with the top five with a victory. Macclesfield Town have experienced a real dip in form with three straight defeats, two of which were at home. They travel to Gateshead tonight, whose own winless run goes back five games. The home side are the favourites at 11/8, a Macclesfield win is priced at 17/10, but the best bet could be the draw at 9/4.

Hereford United have struggled against the newly promoted sides this season and have already been beaten comfortably by Hyde and Dartford. Tonight they travel to Blue Square Bet North promotion final winners Nuneaton Town. Martin Foyle’s Bulls are clinging on to a place in the top-half of the table following a three match winless run. They are the narrow 7/5 favourites to win tonight with the home side struggling – taking just three points from their last possible 18. A home win is priced at 13/8. Mansfield Town’s 4-1 defeat at Cambridge United on Saturday was the third time this season that they’d lost by that scoreline away from home. More importantly it was also their fifth defeat in 12 opening matches, signalling a poor level of form not in keeping with a promotion challenge. The Stags welcome Lincoln City to Field Mill tonight and it’s possible they are playing the right team at the right time. Lincoln are in even worse form this season and Paul Cox should be able to produce a win for his team at odds of 4/6 here. That moves us on to whether or not Cambridge United’s upturn in form was down to Richard Money’s arrival or playing the right teams at the right time. That win over Mansfield was preceded by an identical victory at Barrow. The U’s have not won three straight league games for just over a year, but are 8/5 outsiders to complete the sequence at Woking tonight. We make the Kingfield hosts the 5/4 favourites for the match, even though they haven’t won for three games. Woking’s home form is above average and this could produce a draw at odds of 5/2. Southport are seeking their second away win of the season tonight at Barrow. The hosts themselves are incredibly looking for their first win at Holker Street since the last day of last season. All of which could point to a draw being the best bet at odds of 12/5. Kidderminster Harriers are now unbeaten in their last eight games, but still have only two wins to show for it. A home match against bottom club Hyde sees them quoted at their shortest price this season – 4/7 – to produce a third victory of the campaign. Hyde are yet to win away from home and make very little appeal at 9/2.

WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MATCH – Stockport County v Wrexham
Stockport County have moved up to tenth spot in the Blue Square Bet Premier table with successive wins over Ebbsfleet United and Hereford United. Jim Gannon’s team are a little way off the play-off pace set by the top five, but happily for them are not completely out of touch at this stage. Improvement at Edgeley Park has had to be a gradual process and their results so far this season suggest a cycle of two steps forward – one step back. The Premier Sports cameras are there on Wednesday night to see if they really can mix it with the promotion hopefuls as they host last season’s runners-up Wrexham. Andy Morrell’s team kick-off this match with an eleven game unbeaten streak behind them. A very satisfying home win over fellow promotion challengers Forest Green Rovers kept that sequence going at the weekend and that is why they are the 11/10 favourites for an away win here. Stockport County are priced at 21/10 to put an end to that run and a draw is offered at 5/2.

Three of Stockport’s four defeats this season have come at home and in five of their six home matches the answer on the ‘Will Both Teams Score?’ market has been ‘Yes’. It looks as though Gannon’s side have been forced to take the game to their opponents when in front of their own fans and have been caught out when doing so. Contrast that with a professional performance at Rodney Parade when I saw them stifle current leaders Newport in a goalless draw and we might be at the root of their problem. The fact they are outsiders for this game may play into their hands as Wrexham will be expected to set the pace. Stockport have the individual players to finish off chances, but they might be few and far between against a stingy Red Dragons defence. Morrell has watched his side keep seven clean-sheets in their last ten matches. Even though the ‘Both Teams To Score’ stats point to a high scoring game here, I think we could see the opposite. ‘No Goalscorer’ is priced at 8/1, but I prefer the added insurance that ‘0 or 1 Goal’ gives at 12/5 on the Total Goals market. Adrian Cieslewicz is a player that always impresses me for Wrexham and although I think it will be low scoring – he is the best bet to break any deadlock due to his stunning recent form. He had to be patient to find his way into the side this season, but performances like the winning brace against Forest Green will do his chances of ever being shifted the world of good. He is 7/1 to score first and that looks a value play.

Alan’s Best Tuesday Treble:
DRAW – Barrow v Southport
DRAW – Gateshead v Macclesfield Town
DRAW – Woking v Cambridge United

Alan’s Best Bets for Stockport County v Wrexham:
0 OR 1 GOAL – Total Goals
ADRIAN CIESLEWICZ FIRST GOAL – First Goalscorer
NO GOALS BEFORE THE 28th MINUTE – Time of First Goal Under/Over

Stockport County v Wrexham is live on Premier Sports TV – Wednesday 10th October 7.15pm (7.45pm kick-off) – visit www.premiersports.tv for subscription details.
You can play your part in the commentary for this game! Contact commentators Steve Bower and Ian Snodin during the action to give your thoughts – email: steveandsnods@premiersports.tv OR Twitter: @steveandsnodsps.

Remember you can earn money for your club when you register and place bets with Blue Square Bet – visit www.bluesq.com/fans for more details.

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